Michael Whitman · trading since 2017

Money and markets, explained with real numbers.

The stories behind my videos, free calculators that show their working, and plain-English guides to trading terms, each with what it looks like when it fails.

Get the free Money Reset Checklist 12 steps to budget, pay off debt and start investing Try the free calculators

▶ Latest videoTrump's $150 Million Plan to Cut Gas Prices

• ExplainedWhy Inflation Hit 3.7% and What Warsh's Fed Said, ExplainedUS inflation rose to 3.7% in September 2026 from 3.4%. Where the rise came from in BLS data, what the Fed under Kevin Warsh has said, and what it means for savers.
• ExplainedTrump's Diesel Deal With Putin, ExplainedTrump says Russia will send up to 4.8 million tons of diesel, and the Treasury allowed it until April 2027. What that fuel covers and what diesel costs now.
• ExplainedChina's Push to Tax the Rich, ExplainedChina now taxes offshore trusts at 20% and has a 45% top rate. What its tax data and IRS data show about who pays income tax in China and the US.
• ExplainedOpenAI's $20 Billion Revenue Gap, ExplainedOpenAI told investors its annualized revenue neared $50 billion, not the $68-70 billion reported in September. Why the figures differ and how AI stocks moved.

• CalculatorIf You Invested $1,000 in Nvidia 10 Years Ago$1,000 in Nvidia on 12 Oct 2016 was worth $136,276 on 12 Oct 2026, against $3,641 in the S&P 500. On the way it fell 66.4%.
• CalculatorIf You Invested $1,000 in Bitcoin 10 Years Ago$1,000 in bitcoin on 12 Oct 2016 was worth $128,519 on 12 Oct 2026. Over 5 years it became $1,459, less than in the S&P 500, and over 1 year it lost 29%.
• CalculatorDebt Snowball vs Avalanche CalculatorRace three debts month by month, snowball against avalanche. Across 7,200 mixes of three debts the avalanche saved a median $149 and the snowball never cost less.
• CalculatorRetirement Number CalculatorAnnual spending divided by a withdrawal rate, and the years that gap takes to close. The rate is an assumption, and it is the assumption everything rests on.

What each one calculates, and the market condition it stops working in.

• Moving averagesMoving Average: What It Is, How to Calculate One, and How Late It TurnsA moving average is the average close over the last N bars, redrawn every bar. Worked on real S&P 500 closes, then timed at 26 market lows since 1950.
• IndicatorsWhat Is RSI? The Relative Strength Index Worked by Hand and Tested on Five FundsRSI scores recent gains against recent losses from 0 to 100. Worked by hand on SPY's 30 Oct 2026 close, with 70, 40 and 30 tested on five funds since 1994.
• IndicatorsWhat Is MACD? Formula, How to Read It, and a Worked SPY ExampleMACD is the 12-day EMA minus the 26-day EMA, with a 9-day signal line and a histogram. Worked by hand on SPY's 30 Oct 2026 close, plus 33 years of data.
• IndicatorsWhat Is VWAP? The Formula Worked by Hand on Real SPY BarsVWAP is the volume weighted average price from the open. Worked by hand on SPY's 16 Oct 2026 bars, plus 170 sessions testing what its 10:30 side said about the close.
• IndicatorsBollinger Bands: The Formula Worked on 20 Real SPY ClosesBollinger Bands are a 20-day average with lines two standard deviations either side. Worked by hand on SPY to 30 Oct 2026, then tested on 34,767 ETF sessions.
• IndicatorsWhat Is the Stochastic Oscillator? Formula, %K and %D Worked on Real SPY PricesThe stochastic oscillator shows where the close sits in the last 14 bars' range. A real SPY %K and %D worked by hand, plus what 80 and 20 meant since 1993.
• Moving averagesExponential Moving Average: Not FasterAn exponential moving average lets weight decay instead of stopping. It reacts sooner to new bars, yet its center of mass matches the simple average: 9.5 bars.
• IndicatorsWhat Is ATR (Average True Range)?ATR measures how big a bar has been, in price. It has no direction in it — it rose during the selloff on the chart below — and its real job is sizing stops.

The vocabulary, and which parts of it are renamed support and resistance.

• Smart moneyWhat Are Smart Money Concepts (SMC)?Smart money concepts is five ideas: structure, liquidity, order blocks, fair value gaps, premium and discount. Which parts are genuinely new.
• Smart moneyWhat Is an Order Block? Definition, How to Mark One, and 27 Years of QQQ DataAn order block is the last opposing candle before a break of structure. On QQQ since 1999, 59.73% of first returns closed through the block's body.
• Smart moneyWhat Is Liquidity in Trading? Order Books, the Busiest Hours and Where Stops PoolLiquidity in trading is how much you can buy or sell near the price, and on charts the stops past obvious highs. A real bitcoin order book, SPY volume by hour and IWM data.
• Smart moneyWhat Is a Fair Value Gap?A fair value gap is a three-candle pattern where the first and third candles do not overlap, leaving a band of prices that only one fast candle passed through.

The approach that uses no indicators, and the one input that is not made from price.

• Price actionWhat Is Price Action Trading?Price action means reading the bars themselves — size, speed and shape — rather than indicators calculated from them. Here is what that gives you.
• Order flowWhat Is Volume in Trading? How to Read It, With Real SPY DataVolume is how many shares or contracts traded in a period. On SPY, Friday was the busiest weekday and heavy-volume breakouts did no better 10 sessions later.
• Price actionWhat Is Technical Analysis?Technical analysis is reading price and volume rather than a company or an economy. What it assumes, and the honest answer to whether it works.
• Price actionChart Patterns: The Main Types, the Line Each One Breaks, and 356 Real Breaks TestedChart patterns explained: continuation, reversal and bilateral types, the line each one breaks, and what 356 double-top breaks on SPY, QQQ and IWM did next.

• Video · YouTubeFull Smart Money Concepts Course, Step by StepSmart money concepts, start to finish.
• Video · YouTubeHow to Add Moving Averages on TradingViewAdding and setting them up, step by step.
• Video · YouTubeBollinger Bands Strategy for BeginnersSettings and a step-by-step walkthrough.
• Video · YouTubeMarket Structure for Beginners (Full Course)Trends, highs and lows, and where a trend ends.

• 746 pagesTrading GlossaryWhat each term means, a worked example, and when the idea stops working.
• 157 pagesHow-To GuidesNumbered steps, what you need first, and how to tell it worked.
• 54 pagesInvestingFunds, accounts, what they cost to hold, and the arithmetic.
• 39 pagesTrading CalculatorsCalculators that show their working.
• 328 pagesComparisonsTwo things side by side, and which one wins when.
• Beginner pathStart Here: New to Trading?Four pages to read first, then six subjects in order.

More about me · How this site is made

Educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.