WhitmanTrading

Crypto Futures: The Perpetual Never Settles

Crypto futures are contracts on a coin's price, and most are perpetual, meaning they never settle. A funding payment passed between long and short holders every few hours keeps the contract price near the spot price, and it is a continuous cost or credit to holding one.

How it works

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: A contract on a coin's price, usually with no expiry.
A contract on a coin's price, usually with no expiry. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A futures contract is an agreement on a future price. In this market most of them are perpetual, which means the agreement has no end date at all.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: A perpetual never settles, which is not how futures work.
A perpetual never settles, which is not how futures work. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

That removes the mechanism that normally keeps the price honest. A conventional futures contract converges on the spot price because it settles; one that never settles has nothing pulling it back.

A calmly advancing stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: So a funding payment keeps it near the spot price.
So a funding payment keeps it near the spot price. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

So a funding rate is used instead. When the contract trades above spot, holders of long positions pay holders of short ones; when it trades below, the payment reverses. That incentive is what keeps the two prices together.

A choppy, directionless stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: One side pays the other every few hours, continuously.
One side pays the other every few hours, continuously. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The payment happens every few hours, continuously. It is a genuine cost or credit to holding, and over weeks it can exceed the price move the position was opened for. Nobody mentions it when the position is opened, and it is the first thing to check before holding one for any length of time.

Leverage and liquidation

A flat, quiet stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: And the leverage offered is far above any regulated market.
And the leverage offered is far above any regulated market. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The leverage available here has no equivalent in regulated markets. Multiples that would be prohibited elsewhere are offered by default, and the interface makes selecting them trivial.

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Which means liquidation, not a margin call and a phone call.
Which means liquidation, not a margin call and a phone call. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

And the consequence is liquidation rather than a margin call. There is no notice period and no conversation — the position is closed automatically the moment the margin is insufficient, at whatever price is available.

A declining stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Liquidations trigger liquidations, which is why moves are violent.
Liquidations trigger liquidations, which is why moves are violent. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Forced closes push the price further. Each liquidation is a market order in the same direction, which moves price toward the next cluster of liquidation levels. That cascade is the mechanism behind the very fast moves this market is known for, and it is structural rather than manipulative.

In practice

A candlestick chart with a volume histogram beneath it, with the volume histogram emphasised. The headline on the chart reads: Participation is largest exactly when spreads are worst.
Participation is largest exactly when spreads are worst. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Volume peaks during cascades. Which is also when spreads are widest and fills are worst, so the average trade during a violent move is executed considerably worse than the chart suggests.

A long-horizon candlestick view of the same price series. The headline on the chart reads: Held for weeks the funding cost becomes the whole trade.
Held for weeks the funding cost becomes the whole trade. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Over weeks the funding dominates. A correct directional view can finish flat or negative once the payments are counted, which makes these instruments genuinely short-term tools.

A candlestick series containing several opening gaps, with the largest opening gap marked. The headline on the chart reads: And a weekend move arrives with nobody on the other side.
And a weekend move arrives with nobody on the other side. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Weekend moves happen into an empty book. There is no close, so a gap here is a jump through thin liquidity rather than a repricing at an open.

A declining stretch of the long price series, with the entry price and the level at which a stop would trigger drawn as horizontal lines. The headline on the chart reads: A stop here is a race against the liquidation engine.
A stop here is a race against the liquidation engine. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A stop has to trigger before the liquidation level. At high leverage those two levels are very close together, which leaves almost no room for a stop to work as intended.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, annotated with the round-trip cost. The headline on the chart reads: Every round trip costs a share of a bar before funding.
Every round trip costs a share of a bar before funding. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Ordinary trading costs apply on top. 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this history, before any funding payment.

A 72-bar candlestick section of the shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: The book empties in seconds during a cascade.
The book empties in seconds during a cascade. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Liquidity disappears exactly when it is needed. The book that looked deep at rest empties in seconds once forced selling starts, and that is when your order arrives.

One consequence of continuous funding is worth stating as a strategy rather than a warning: the payment can be collected. Holding the side that receives funding, hedged against an equivalent spot position, produces the payment with the price exposure removed — an arrangement institutions run at scale.

It is not free money and it is not simple. It requires capital on both sides, it costs two sets of trading fees, the funding rate can reverse, and the hedge has to be maintained through moves that trigger margin requirements. But it explains where a large part of the volume comes from, and it is a better account of who is on the other side of your trade than any story about direction.

What crypto futures are not

They are not conventional futures. Most never settle.

They are not free to hold. Funding is paid continuously.

They are not a leveraged spot position. The liquidation rules differ.

And they are not manipulated when they cascade. That is the design.

When it fails

A sideways, range-bound candlestick series. The headline on the chart reads: In a range the funding payments are the only outcome.
In a range the funding payments are the only outcome. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

In a range funding is the only thing that happens. The price ends where it started and one side has paid the other continuously for weeks, which is the clearest demonstration of what the instrument charges for.

The second failure is sizing by leverage rather than by risk. Choosing a multiple and then a position is backwards; the position should follow from the distance to the stop.

A third is holding a directional view for weeks. The funding cost was designed for a different holding period.

A fourth is placing a stop inside the liquidation distance. At twenty times leverage a four per cent move against you ends the position regardless of any order.

And a fifth is trading during a cascade. The chart shows prices that were barely available.

The original data

On this site’s shared 576-bar history the round-trip cost is 0.0098 price units — 2% of the median bar range of 0.4916 and 45% of the smallest bar. Of the 31,760 videos in the corpus, 5 have “crypto futures” in the title at a median of 190,092 views across 4 channels, with a maximum of 591,569 — against 17 for “ethereum” at a median of 13,212. The figures are in research/series-measurements.json and research/corpus-coverage.json.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series, cut short at the decision bar. The headline on the chart reads: Twenty times leverage and a 4% move against you. Left?
Twenty times leverage and a 4% move against you. Left? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A median of 190,092 views against Ethereum’s 13,212 is a fourteen-fold gap in attention — the leveraged instrument attracts vastly more interest than the asset it is a contract on, which is the reliable pattern wherever leverage is available. Before opening one, work out two numbers: the current funding rate annualised, and the percentage move that liquidates your position. Both are displayed, both take seconds, and together they describe the trade far better than any chart does.

Futures covers how a conventional contract works and why settlement matters. Leverage trading is the mechanism and its arithmetic. And crypto is the underlying asset class.

What I actually do

The number I did not understand for far too long was funding. I held a position for three weeks with a view that turned out to be right, and finished roughly flat because I had paid the other side every eight hours for the privilege. The view was correct and the instrument ate it.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.