WhitmanTrading

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis

Technical and fundamental analysis differ in what they take as input. Technical analysis is computed from prices that have already printed, so it describes what is happening; fundamental analysis is an argument about value, which sets a direction over a much longer horizon and cannot time anything.

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis — illustrated on a chart Watch me trade a chart while ignoring the story behind it (14:00)

The debate is usually framed as a contest. They are not answering the same question, and the clearest way to see it is to look at a moment where one of them had nothing to say.

How it works

A 144-bar candlestick chart with no annotations.
Every line this site draws is a function of these prices. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Technical analysis takes prices as its input. Every indicator on this site — the averages, the oscillators, the bands — is a formula applied to open, high, low, close and volume. Nothing else enters.

That is a real constraint, not a criticism. It means a technical tool can describe what price has done and cannot know anything price has not yet expressed.

Fundamental analysis takes something else as its input — earnings, rates, supply, whatever the instrument is priced on — and produces an argument about what the thing is worth.

One reads the record. The other argues with it.

The moment the difference shows

A chart with a large gap between one close and the next open.
A 0.60 gap - 2.0 times the median bar - with no bars inside it.

Between one close and the next open, price moved 0.60 — twice the median bar range — and no trading happened in between.

The same chart with the bar before the gap marked.
Into that gap up, the histogram read -0.020 and RSI read 61.

On the last bar before it, the MACD histogram read −0.020 — pointing down — and RSI read 61.

Neither indicator was wrong. They were computed from the prices that existed, and the prices that existed did not contain the news.

This is the boundary, and it is exact: a technical read is a statement about the record, and a gap is the record’s admission that something happened outside it.

Different clocks

A 12-bar chart covering the same history as the previous ones.
The same history in 12 bars - the scale a valuation argues on.

The same price history is 576 bars on the fastest view and 12 on the slowest.

A valuation argues on the right-hand chart. It says where price should be over quarters, and it is completely silent about which of the 576 bars to act on.

A technical read works on the left-hand one and is silent about whether the level it is trading toward makes any sense at all.

Which is why “which is better” is the wrong question. They operate on horizons that differ by a factor of nearly fifty, and the position trading page is where the two get closest to overlapping.

What each one cannot do

Two limits, stated as limits rather than as criticisms.

A technical tool cannot see anything that has not printed. The gap above is the clean demonstration — but the same is true every day in a smaller way, because a chart contains no information about what is scheduled for tomorrow.

A chart with three gaps marked, labelled by whether the indicator pointed the right way.
Three gaps: the indicator pointed the right way into 2 of them.

Across all three gaps in that scene the histogram’s sign matched the gap’s direction twice. Two of three is what chance looks like on three events, and it is quoted here so the page is not resting its case on the single example that suited it.

A valuation cannot produce a price to act at. It produces a range and an argument, and the distance between “worth more than this” and “buy here” is the whole of the timing problem.

Neither limit is fixable by combining them. Putting a valuation on a chart does not give the valuation a stop, and putting a chart under a valuation does not tell the chart what is coming.

Using both without pretending

A chart with a bar marked where something changed.
One answers what is happening; the other answers why.

The honest combination is narrow and worth stating exactly.

Fundamentals decide what you are willing to hold and in which direction. A view that something is cheap is a reason to be looking for long entries rather than short ones.

Technicals decide where you get in and where you are wrong. The stop is a price, and only the chart has prices on it.

And the calendar decides when not to have a position at all. Knowing that an announcement is due is not fundamental analysis — it is the one piece of non-price information that changes a technical decision, because it tells you a gap is more likely than usual.

What does not work is using one to argue with the other after entry. A losing technical trade held because the fundamentals are good has become a different trade with no stop, which is the most common way this pairing actually gets used.

A worked example

Decide which question you are asking before you open the chart. What is this worth, or where do I get in.

If it is the first, the chart cannot answer it and no amount of indicator selection will change that.

If it is the second, check the calendar first. Earnings, rates, and scheduled announcements are the only inputs from the other side that change a short-horizon decision.

Then place the stop from the chart — and do not move it because of an opinion about value.

The original data

Across our study of 24,971 trading videos, only 21 cover technical and fundamental analysis together — the fifth-smallest field measured here. The median one gets 1,467 views, 90% never pass 50,000, and the median length is 9.5 minutes.

The corpus carries no description text at all for any of those 21, so this page makes no claim about how the topic is written.

The field size is the finding. 21 videos on how the two approaches fit together, against 1,639 on forex and 1,465 on day trading. The comparison is one of the first questions every beginner asks and one of the least covered subjects in the study.

When it fails

You use fundamentals as a stop

“It is a good company” is not an invalidation level. It has no price in it, so it cannot tell you when to leave — which is the failure the stop loss page is entirely about.

You use technicals to time a valuation

A 48-bar chart with no annotations.
A good valuation can be right and early by this many bars.

A correct view about value can be early by the whole width of that chart. Being right eventually and being solvent throughout are separate problems, and leverage decides which one you get to find out about.

You treat the news as tradeable information

By the time you have read it, it is in the price — that is what the gap above is. The gap trading page measures what happens next, and it is not a free trade.

You judged it from the finished chart

A chart cut off the bar before a large gap.
The chart the night before the news.

This is the chart the evening before. Nothing on it is different from any other evening, which is the entire content of this page in one picture.

Gap trading is the event where the two approaches meet, measured.

Position trading is the horizon on which a valuation can actually be expressed as a trade.

And do indicators work is the test that establishes what a price-derived tool can and cannot claim.

What I actually do

I do not do fundamental analysis and I say so on the channel. What I do is check the calendar, because the one thing a chart absolutely cannot show me is that earnings are tomorrow. That is not analysis, it is knowing when the ground is about to move under a technical read.

— Michael Whitman, from this video

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.