WhitmanTrading

Are Trading Signals Worth It?

A trading signal is an alert telling a subscriber what to trade, usually for a monthly fee. The subscriber receives the decision without the reasoning, cannot size it to their own account, and pays the fee in months the service produces nothing.

How it works

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: A signal is someone else's decision, arriving late.
A signal is someone else's decision, arriving late. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A signal service sends alerts naming a trade — an instrument, a direction, usually an entry price and sometimes a stop and a target. Subscribers act on the alert. The fee is generally monthly, and some services execute automatically through a copy-trading link.

What arrives is the conclusion of a decision, with the decision removed. Whatever analysis produced it stays with the person who did it, which is the property that makes the service scalable and the reason it does not transfer skill.

Price above and two account curves below, one paying a monthly fee and one not. The headline on the chart reads: And the fee comes out whether the month worked or not.
And the fee comes out whether the month worked or not. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The fee is the one certainty in the arrangement. On a $25,000 account compounding 1.5% a month, a $199 monthly subscription turns a +19.6% year into +9.2%. That is computed from those stated inputs, and the shape holds at any account size: a fixed cost is a larger drag on a smaller account.

The three things an alert cannot carry

Price above and an account equity curve below on a gently rising stretch, ending at the lower limit. The headline on the chart reads: A signal cannot know your account, so it cannot size the trade.
A signal cannot know your account, so it cannot size the trade. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

It cannot size the position. The service does not know your account, your other exposure, or what you can afford to lose, and position size is the variable that decides outcomes more than entry does. The challenge simulation puts a number on how much more.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, with the entry price and the level at which a stop would trigger drawn as horizontal lines. The headline on the chart reads: And an alert without an exit is half a trade.
And an alert without an exit is half a trade. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

It frequently does not carry an exit. An entry without a stop and a target is half a trade, and the half that is missing is the half that determines the result.

A long-horizon candlestick view of the same price series. The headline on the chart reads: Following signals teaches you nothing about why.
Following signals teaches you nothing about why. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

And it cannot transfer the reasoning. A year of following alerts leaves a subscriber exactly where they started in terms of what to do when the alerts stop, which is the difference between renting an outcome and acquiring a skill.

In practice: latency, cost and evidence

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series, with filled limit orders marked in green and missed ones in red. The headline on the chart reads: The price moves between the alert and your fill.
The price moves between the alert and your fill. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Every subscriber receives the alert simultaneously and acts on it at different speeds. The price that was available when it was sent is not the price most of them get, and the gap grows with the size of the subscriber base relative to the instrument’s liquidity.

On a thin instrument the service’s own subscribers are the market for a few minutes. That moves the entry against later arrivals and, on the exit, against everyone at once.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, annotated with the round-trip cost. The headline on the chart reads: On top of the 2% of a bar every round trip costs.
On top of the 2% of a bar every round trip costs. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The subscription sits on top of ordinary trading costs, not instead of them. Every alert acted on pays 2% of a typical bar’s range in round-trip costs on the site’s shared history, and a service that sends more alerts costs more in both dimensions at once.

A flat but volatile stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: A published record is a claim until it is an audited one.
A published record is a claim until it is an audited one. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A track record posted by the party selling the service is a claim. The questions that turn it into evidence are dull and specific: was every alert published in advance and left up, are losing alerts included, are the entries the ones subscribers could actually get, and who checked.

Screenshots answer none of those. Neither does a wall of winning trades, which is what a service would produce whether or not the underlying record was good.

What a signal service is not

It is not necessarily a scam. Some services are run by capable traders publishing what they genuinely do, and the arithmetic on this page applies to those exactly as it applies to the others.

It is not investment advice in the regulated sense, which is worth knowing because it means the protections and disclosure duties attached to regulated advice generally do not apply.

It is not a substitute for a method. A subscriber with no framework cannot tell a bad month from a broken service, which is the position the arrangement leaves them in by design.

And it is not free of the costs it appears to avoid. The fee replaces the effort of analysis with a fixed charge; it does not replace the spread, the slippage or the sizing decision.

When it fails

A calmly advancing stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: The quiet months still bill at the same rate.
The quiet months still bill at the same rate. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The clearest failure is a quiet market. The fee is monthly and the opportunities are not, so a stretch with nothing worth trading costs the subscriber the full subscription and returns nothing.

A sideways, range-bound candlestick series. The headline on the chart reads: In a range the alerts come faster and work less.
In a range the alerts come faster and work less. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The second failure is the opposite one. A service under pressure to justify its fee sends more alerts in exactly the conditions that suit them least, and each one costs the subscriber a round trip.

A third is partial following. Subscribers routinely take some alerts and skip others, which means the service’s record — however honest — describes a different set of trades from the one they took.

And a fourth is a size mismatch discovered late. An alert sized for a large account, taken at the same nominal size on a small one, is a risk decision made by accident.

Copy trading removes the latency and adds a different problem. Automatic execution fixes the delay between alert and fill, and in exchange hands sizing and timing to a third party operating on their own account’s logic. The subscriber now has an exposure they did not choose and cannot see coming.

There is a narrow case where a service is genuinely useful, and it is worth stating. A trader who already has a method and wants a second source of candidates — treated as a watchlist, sized by their own rules, filtered by their own criteria — is buying research rather than decisions. That use survives everything on this page, because the subscriber is still the one trading.

The original data

17 of the 24,971 videos measured for this site cover trading signals, at a median of 4,671 views. That is a small supply for a large industry, and most of what exists is either promotion or a blanket accusation, neither of which contains a number.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, cut short at the decision bar. The headline on the chart reads: The alert came in twenty minutes ago. Still take it?
The alert came in twenty minutes ago. Still take it? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The number this page can supply is the drag. $199 a month against a $25,000 account compounding 1.5% a month costs 10.4 percentage points of the year. A service has to beat that margin before it has done anything for the subscriber at all, and that is the test worth applying to any of them.

Trading mentors sell a different thing at a similar price and the comparison matters. A trading journal is the thing that builds what a signal cannot. And risk per trade is the input no alert can supply for you.

What I actually do

I followed alerts for about four months early on and the trades were not the problem — several worked. The problem was that at the end of it I could not have explained a single one of them, so I had paid for four months and learned nothing I could reuse.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.