WhitmanTrading

FTSE 100: A British Index, Priced Abroad

The FTSE 100 is an index of the hundred largest companies by market value listed on the London Stock Exchange. Most of their revenue is earned outside the United Kingdom, so the index behaves less like a bet on the British economy than its name suggests.

How it works

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: The hundred largest companies listed in London.
The hundred largest companies listed in London. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Membership is by market value among companies listed in London. The constituents are reviewed quarterly, and companies enter and leave as their size changes relative to the rest.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series with an account equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: Most of their earnings come from outside Britain.
Most of their earnings come from outside Britain. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Listing location and earnings location are different things. The index contains oil majors, global miners, international banks and consumer goods companies selling worldwide. Where the shares are quoted tells you almost nothing about where the profits come from.

A calmly advancing stretch of the long price series with a slowly rising equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: So a weaker pound tends to lift the index.
So a weaker pound tends to lift the index. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

That produces a counterintuitive currency effect. Earnings made in dollars translate into more pounds when sterling falls, so the index often rises on domestically bad news. An index that goes up when the currency goes down is not measuring national economic health.

A flat, quiet stretch of the long price series with a gradually rising equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: It is heavy in energy, mining, banks and consumer goods.
It is heavy in energy, mining, banks and consumer goods. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The sector mix is the index’s real character. Extraction, finance and established consumer brands dominate — mature, cash-generative businesses in cyclical industries.

What that mix produces

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series with an account curve breaching its limit. The headline on the chart reads: And light in the technology that drove other indices.
And light in the technology that drove other indices. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The technology weight is small, and that explains most of the comparisons people make. When commentators note the index lagging others over a period, the composition is usually the whole explanation.

A choppy, directionless stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Which is why it pays more and grows less.
Which is why it pays more and grows less. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Mature businesses distribute rather than reinvest. That produces a higher aggregate dividend and slower price growth — not a defect, a different shape of return.

A declining stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: The headline number excludes dividends entirely.
The headline number excludes dividends entirely. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

And the quoted level is a price index. It leaves out the income, which for this particular index is the larger share of the long-run return. Comparing its headline chart against a total-return figure elsewhere is comparing two different quantities, and it happens constantly.

In practice

A 72-bar candlestick section of the shared price history with an account curve shown with and without fees. The headline on the chart reads: And a fund's fee comes off whatever it returns.
And a fund's fee comes off whatever it returns. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Owning it means owning a fund, and the fee compounds. On this site’s arithmetic, 5 basis points a year removes 1.5% of a thirty-year pot and 75 removes 20.2% — before any question of tracking.

A candlestick chart with a volume histogram beneath it, with the volume histogram emphasised. The headline on the chart reads: It is deep, and most activity is in a few names.
It is deep, and most activity is in a few names. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Liquidity is concentrated. The largest constituents account for a disproportionate share of both the index value and the trading, so the index is more exposed to a handful of companies than “one hundred” suggests.

A long-horizon candlestick view of the same price series. The headline on the chart reads: It spent long stretches going nowhere.
It spent long stretches going nowhere. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Its price history contains multi-year periods of no progress. During those, the dividend was the entire return, which is the practical consequence of the composition described above.

A candlestick series containing several opening gaps, with the largest opening gap marked. The headline on the chart reads: And the open reacts to Asia before London wakes.
And the open reacts to Asia before London wakes. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The opening level reflects overnight moves elsewhere. With globally exposed constituents, the opening gap frequently prices news that arrived while London was closed.

A declining stretch of the long price series, with the entry price and the level at which a stop would trigger drawn as horizontal lines. The headline on the chart reads: An index has no stop; a position in it might.
An index has no stop; a position in it might. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The index itself is a calculation. A stop belongs to whatever instrument you hold against it, not to the number.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, annotated with the round-trip cost. The headline on the chart reads: Every round trip costs 2% of a bar.
Every round trip costs 2% of a bar. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Trading it costs the usual amount. A round trip on this site’s shared history is 2% of a median bar’s range, which for a slow-moving index is a meaningful share of a typical day.

Reading it without being misled

Ask what fraction of constituent revenue is domestic before calling it a country bet. For this index the answer is the reason most commentary about it is confused.

Then use the total-return version for any comparison. The price index and a total-return index answer different questions, and the difference over a decade is large. If a chart does not say which one it is, assume it is the price index, because that is the one quoted on the news.

And look at the sector weights before attributing performance to a country. An index heavy in extraction did what commodity prices did; that is composition, not national economics.

The quarterly review, and why it moves prices

Membership is recalculated every quarter against published rules. A company whose value has risen above a threshold enters; one that has fallen below another leaves. The rules are known in advance and so, roughly, are the likely changes.

Every tracking fund must then trade the same names on the same day. A share entering the index is bought by all of them at once, and one leaving is sold by all of them at once, regardless of what anybody thinks it is worth. That is a large, scheduled, price-insensitive flow, and it is the clearest example of index mechanics affecting prices rather than reflecting them.

Which is why inclusion and removal are followed closely by people who never trade the index itself. The move often begins when the change becomes probable rather than when it takes effect, and it can partially reverse afterwards once the mandatory buying is done.

What the FTSE 100 is not

It is not the British economy. The earnings are global.

It is not a total return. Dividends are excluded.

It is not diversified by sector. A few dominate.

And it is not directly investable. You buy a fund.

When it fails

A sideways, range-bound candlestick series. The headline on the chart reads: In a flat decade the dividend is the entire return.
In a flat decade the dividend is the entire return. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

In a flat decade the price index shows nothing and the holder still earned. Which is exactly the situation in which the headline number misleads most, and it has happened more than once.

The second failure is treating it as a domestic proxy. The currency effect runs the other way.

A third is comparing its price chart to another index’s total return. Different quantities.

A fourth is assuming a hundred names means diversification. The weightings are concentrated.

A fifth is buying it for growth. The composition is built for income.

And a sixth is ignoring the fee on the fund. It is the one certainty in the whole arrangement.

The original data

Of the 24,971 videos in research/search-study-corpus.jsonl, 3 have “ftse” in the title, at a median of 99 views across 2 channels, with a maximum of 599.Index fund” appears in 30 at a median of 74,230. The counts are in research/broker-coverage.json.

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series, cut short at the decision bar. The headline on the chart reads: The price index is flat for years. A lost decade?
The price index is flat for years. A lost decade? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Three videos and a median of 99 views is the smallest audience recorded on this site. It is a straightforward consequence of where the trading-content audience is: this corpus is overwhelmingly American, and a British index draws essentially nobody. Worth stating plainly, because it means the absence of coverage here says nothing about the index and everything about the sample.

The answer to that final question is that a flat price index is not a flat return. Add the income back and the decade usually looks quite different. Find the total-return series before concluding anything — for an index composed of high-distributing mature businesses, the dividends are not a footnote to the result, they are most of it.

Stock market is the wider structure an index sits inside and summarises. Index funds is how this becomes something ownable and what the fee costs. And dividend investing is the return shape this particular index produces.

What I actually do

The habit worth building here is checking what an index actually contains before treating it as a proxy for anything. I had assumed a British index was a bet on Britain, which is roughly the opposite of true, and the sector weights explain more about how it behaves than any macro view I could have formed.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.