WhitmanTrading

Long-Term Liabilities: Everything Matures

Long-term liabilities are obligations falling due more than twelve months out, mainly borrowings, lease liabilities and provisions. Time is the only thing distinguishing them from current liabilities, and every one of them migrates across that line as its own maturity date approaches.

How it works

A labelled breakdown diagram adding long-term debt, lease liabilities and provisions to give long-term liabilities. The headline reads: Obligations due after more than twelve months.
Obligations due after more than twelve months. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Borrowings repayable beyond a year, lease liabilities, deferred tax and long-term provisions.

A breakdown diagram comparing amounts due within a year against amounts due after a year. The headline reads: Time is the only thing separating them from current ones.
Time is the only thing separating them from current ones. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

The classification is purely about timing. A five-year loan and a six-month loan are the same kind of obligation to the same kind of lender; one sits here and one sits in current liabilities.

A breakdown diagram showing long-term debt with a portion maturing next year. The headline reads: And every long-term debt becomes a short-term one eventually.
And every long-term debt becomes a short-term one eventually. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Which means the line migrates. A bond maturing in four years is here; three years later it is current, and nothing about the company changed.

The schedule is the whole point

A breakdown diagram showing debt maturities across year one, year two, year three and beyond. The headline reads: The maturity schedule is in the notes and it is the point.
The maturity schedule is in the notes and it is the point. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Total debt says how much. The maturity table says when, and when is what decides the risk. Debt spread evenly across a decade is a running cost; the same total concentrated in one year is a refinancing event.

The table is in the notes of every annual report and takes about a minute to read. It is, for most companies, the single highest-value minute available in the document.

A breakdown diagram splitting borrowings into fixed rate and floating rate portions. The headline reads: A fixed rate and a floating rate are different risks.
A fixed rate and a floating rate are different risks. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

The fixed-floating split is the second disclosure worth finding. Fixed-rate debt has a known cost until maturity; floating-rate debt reprices with the market, so a company with a large floating portion has an interest bill that moves without any new borrowing.

A breakdown diagram showing long-term debt that could be accelerated in full on a covenant breach. The headline reads: Covenants can make long-term debt due immediately.
Covenants can make long-term debt due immediately. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And covenants can collapse the schedule entirely. Loan agreements typically require ratios to be maintained — gearing below a level, interest cover above one. A breach can make the whole balance immediately repayable, which turns a long-term obligation into a current one overnight.

Covenant terms are disclosed, and they are the reason a company with comfortable-looking debt can be in difficulty after one weak quarter.

In practice

A breakdown diagram dividing operating income by interest to give a cover of six times. The headline reads: And operating earnings over interest is what keeps it serviceable.
And operating earnings over interest is what keeps it serviceable. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Interest cover is the flow measure that matters. Operating income divided by interest expense says how far earnings can fall before the interest bill is unpayable — which is a more direct question than gearing answers.

A breakdown diagram comparing a pension obligation measured at a low discount rate against one measured at a high rate. The headline reads: Pension obligations are estimates that move with rates.
Pension obligations are estimates that move with rates. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Pension obligations are the least intuitive item here. A defined benefit scheme’s liability is the present value of future payments, so it moves with the discount rate — the same promises can be worth 300 at one rate and 210 at another. Nothing about the pensions changed; the arithmetic did.

A breakdown diagram contrasting borrowing for expansion against borrowing to fund losses. The headline reads: Borrowing to buy productive assets is not the same as borrowing to survive.
Borrowing to buy productive assets is not the same as borrowing to survive. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And what the money bought is not on the balance sheet. Debt raised to build a factory that earns more than the interest is a different thing from debt raised to cover trading losses, and the liability line records both identically. The cash flow statement is where the difference is visible.

A breakdown diagram showing a typical bar's range with the round-trip trading cost subtracted. The headline reads: Trading the shares costs two percent of a bar.
Trading the shares costs two percent of a bar. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And acting on any of it in the market costs 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this site’s shared price history.

Put the refinancing question on numbers. A company owes 700 long term, spread as 300 in year one, 150 in year two, 100 in year three and 150 beyond. It holds 180 of cash and undrawn facilities and generates about 140 a year of cash from operations.

Year one is the problem and it is arithmetic, not judgement: 300 due against 320 of cash and expected generation leaves nothing for anything else, so the maturity has to be refinanced rather than repaid. Whether that is comfortable depends on credit markets in twelve months’ time, which nobody controls — and the whole calculation is available today from one table in the notes and one line on the cash flow statement.

What long-term liabilities are not

They are not safe because they are distant. Distance shrinks every year.

They are not all borrowings. Leases, provisions and deferred tax sit here too.

They are not fixed in amount. Pension and provision balances are estimates that move.

And they are not immune to acceleration. Covenants exist.

When it fails

A breakdown diagram comparing debt maturing within one year against available cash and undrawn facilities. The headline reads: Refinancing risk is the one the total does not show.
Refinancing risk is the one the total does not show. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Refinancing risk is the failure this line conceals. A company expecting to roll a maturity over is assuming lenders will be willing on the day, and that willingness is not within its control. The years when it is unavailable are the years when the most companies need it.

The second failure is the covenant breach. A weak quarter breaches a ratio, the debt becomes repayable, and the company has to raise money in the worst possible circumstances.

A third is the floating rate exposure. A company with unchanged debt can see its interest bill rise sharply, and gearing will not have moved at all.

A fourth is treating a pension surplus as an asset. It moves with discount rates and it is not distributable.

And a fifth is reading the total instead of the schedule, which is the mistake this entire page exists to argue against.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 3 have “balance sheet” in the title at a median of 23,862 views, and 0 have “income statement”. “Cash flow” returns 17 at a median of 67,134. The relative strength index (“RSI”) returns 844 at a median of 3,907. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A breakdown diagram showing a floating rate portion of borrowings and the resulting increase in interest cost. The headline reads: Gearing unchanged and rates doubled. Is anything different?
Gearing unchanged and rates doubled. Is anything different? Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Three videos on the balance sheet, out of 31,760. The maturity schedule, the fixed-floating split and the covenant terms are three disclosures that between them explain most corporate distress, and all three sit in the notes of documents that are free to download. The reason to read them is not that they are sophisticated — it is that they are the only place the timing is written down, and every ratio on the face of the balance sheet averages that timing away.

Liabilities is the full picture, including which obligations cost interest. Current liabilities is where these end up. And balance sheet is the page the whole side sits on.

What I actually do

Refinancing risk is the thing I underestimated for years. A company does not usually fail because its debt was too large - it fails because a large piece of it came due at a moment when nobody wanted to lend, and that date was printed in the accounts all along.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.